Can Delhi Ordinance Pass the Rajya Sabha Test? Congress Biggest Variable in Kejriwal's Oppn Equation

Delhi CM and Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal will kick off a whirlwind tour this week beginning with West Bengal and Maharashtra to elicit support from the Trinamool Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray against the Centre’s ordinance on jurisdiction over bureaucrats in the national capital.

The ordinance effectively took away the elected government’s executive and legislative power over services awarded to it by a five-judge Constitution Bench after an eight-year-long battle with the Centre.

AAP Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha would be accompanying the Delhi Chief Minister to both West Bengal and Maharashtra. AAP sources said the party plans to travel to all non-BJP-ruled states and that Kejriwal will reach out personally to all leaders in the opposition camp.

Kejriwal has already met former BJP ally and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD, who have come out in open support of the AAP government. The Left parties, too, have announced a demonstration on May 24 to demand that the ordinance be withdrawn.

There, however, may be more to Kejriwal’s meetings with opposition leaders than just galvanizing support against the May 19 ordinance.

“He (Nitish Kumar) is engaged in uniting all opposition leaders. I have requested him that if all opposition parties and non-BJP parties come together, and if they (central government) bring this ordinance in the Rajya Sabha in the form of a bill, we can defeat it. And if this bill is defeated in the Rajya Sabha, in a way, this will be the semi-final for 2024 (Lok Sabha elections). If this bill is defeated, a message will go across the country that the BJP is losing 2024,” Kejriwal had said after meeting Nitish Kumar.

After the still-born G8 or Group of 8 meeting in which Kejriwal had invited seven non-BJP chief ministers, the Delhi CM is trying to turn the current crisis into an opportunity to re-engage with all non-BJP leaders and catapult himself and the party onto the national stage. The ‘G8’ chief ministers who gave the initial meeting call a miss are West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin, Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar.

The AAP has pitched the ordinance has an “experiment” by the central government to allegedly grab power in other opposition-ruled states.

“The manner in which an attempt has been made to cripple the Delhi government by promulgating an ordinance is being used as a ‘prayogshala’ (laboratory). In the coming days, as one sees the situation, they can bring an ordinance for the whole country and impose ‘tanashahi’ (dictatorship),” said AAP Delhi State Convenor Gopal Rai.

“Many opposition parties have alleged that the central government has misused investigative agencies like CBI and ED to settle political scores, with 14 of them even having petitioned the Supreme Court unsuccessfully on the alleged misuse of central investigative and seeking guidelines for the future.”

But defeating such a bill, if and when it is tabled in the Rajya Sabha, would prove to be a Herculean task for the opposition which has never been united enough to defeat controversial bills like the dilution of Article 370 or the Citizenship Amendment Act.

Ironically, the AAP had supported the BJP on abrogation of special status for Jammu and Kashmir, something which former J&K CM Omar Abdullah has reminded the party of.

Moreover, the AAP has 10 MPs in the Rajya Sabha and would need to court its bitter rival, the Congress, which has 31 MPs. Without the Congress, it is difficult to predict how the other opposition parties would eventually side. Currently, the opposition is spaced out in the Rajya Sabha as per the following MP count:

• TMC – 12 MPs
• DMK – 10 MPs
• TRS – 7 MPs
• RJD – 6 MPs
• CPI(M) – 5 MPs
• JD(U) – 5 MPs
• TDP – 1 MP
• NCP – 4 MPs
• Samajwadi Party – 3 MPs
• Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray – 3 MPs
• CPI – 2 MPs
• JMM – 2 MPs

Other smaller parties like AGP, IUML, JD (S), Kerala Congress, Marumalarchi DMK, RLD, Tamil Manila Congress (Moopanar) and TDP have one MP each in the Rajya. Without the Congress, these add up to 77. With the Congress, the tally goes to 108.

Nitish Kumar had recently met Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, senior leader Rahul Gandhi and General Secretary KC Venugopal to garner support against the ordinance. While initial indications suggested the Congress would support the AAP, Venugopal scorched all speculation.

“The Congress Party has not taken any decision on the issue of the Ordinance brought against the SC judgment on the powers of the Government of NCT of Delhi with respect to appointment of officers. It will consult its state units & other like-minded parties on the same,” he tweeted. This was retweeted by former Delhi Congress chief Ajay Maken.

The BJP-led NDA has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha with 329 MPs, but in the 238-member Rajya Sabha, the saffron party has 93 MPs. Assuming that all members would be present and voting, the BJP needs to cross 119.

Even though many of its allies have left the NDA, the BJP can still hope to cross the finish line with the support of allies like AIADMK (4 MPs), five nominated members and parties like BJD (9), YSRCP (9), BSP (1), Independent and others (3) and smaller parties like Mizo National Front, National People’s Party, Pattali Makkal Katchi, RPI (Athawale), Sikkim Democratic Front, United People’s Party (Liberal), who have one member each.

There is also a high-probability of walkouts in the opposition camp. “The aim is to defeat the ordinance, but only after talks with various leaders will we be in a position to better gauge the situation,” an AAP leader told News18 on condition of anonymity.