Stakeholders in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections are finding that the political terrain has shifted, with the farmers’ agitation against the Farm Acts 2020 taking on a life of its own. Political experiments of this kind have the potential for snowballing, with unpredictable consequences.
Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh is on a slippery slope; the protest he actively encouraged could boomerang on his party. A quick and face-saving end to the imbroglio is in his interests, before new forces come into play, hijack the platform and alter the narrative. Nor can he allow dissidents within his own party to gain leverage from it.
Internationalising the issue in the hope of embarrassing the ruling NDA gave space to the ‘Khalistani’ elements within the Sikh diaspora. Their presence on the ground and role in the protest is marginal, but they tend to grab the global media’s attention with street theatrics.
The Punjab CM understands how politically expensive any whiff of separatism can be and how quickly it can spook voters. He has used the Khalistan card to excellent effect himself, against AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, during the campaign for the 2017 assembly polls. (He had warned of a return of terrorism if the AAP came to power in the state.)
His nationalist image, as a former soldier and staunch critic of Pakistan’s terror-export, demands that he give pro-Khalistan elements a wide berth. It was this image that enabled him to defy the Modi wave in three elections. Accordingly, Amarinder Singh has pre-emptively red-flagged the ‘national security’ implications of the on-going protest, a gentle reminder that he had lambasted Canada for its “overt and covert” support to the Khalistani movement last year.
Left-leaning groups have also jumped in, some ideologically opposed to liberalisation, others simply along for the ride. The opportunity for ‘democracy-shaming’ the ruling NDA — projecting it as illiberal — was too good to miss. But this has handed the BJP the chance to lambast the ‘tukde tukde’ gang.
The protest is localised and the middle-class largely indifferent, so the BJP is not unduly worried about its electoral impact, especially as the party’s stakes in Punjab are limited. Nor is it bothered by the global media’s mischaracterisation of the agitation as ‘countrywide’. Inter-state shaming for alleged norm-violations is an old tactic, of doubtful efficacy.
However, in Haryana where the BJP’s alliance partner, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), has a base among farmers, it cannot afford to be sanguine. While the threat of withdrawal of support is in the air, the MLAs are aware that no alternative government is possible and few of them are ready to face another election.
The principal opposition parties in Punjab, the AAP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), belatedly scrambled on board the farmers’ bandwagon, thereby raising the stakes. The AAP tied itself in knots by taking an untenable position – on the one hand, it wants clean air in Delhi, on the other, the farmers want to roll back the law against stubble-burning. As for the SAD, its presence in the Cabinet when the farm laws were approved robs it of credibility.
The Congress may have little to fear from the opposition, but the Captain faces rebellion in the ranks. Rajya Sabha MP Pratap Singh Bajwa and his supporters are at daggers drawn with the CM and rumours that he may jump ship are rife. A split in the Congress would allow the BJP a foothold in a state where standard tactics of polarisation are ineffective. Plus, the possibility of the stir throwing up new leadership cannot be ruled out – the AAP is testimony to the swift rise of alternative forces.
For Amarinder Singh, who had sought to win brownie points in his constituency by strong-arming the Centre into making concessions, the best course forward is to force the Centre to back down on contentious clauses, while allowing it to maintain the spirit of agricultural reforms. Punjab can ill-afford the battering of the state’s already dilapidated economy as a result of the unrest, which led to a six-week railway blockade.
The sense that the protest is geared towards safeguarding the interests of the ruling elite in Punjab is gaining ground, with washing machines and foot massagers appearing at the site. This could lead to a rural-urban or even a class polarisation.
The best-case scenario for Amarinder Singh, given that other states are now competing with Punjab in contributing foodgrains to the central pool, is to accept the centre’s promise that it will continue to procure its farm produce at Minimum Support Price (MSP) and respect the state’s right to tax trade. At the same time, he can negotiate a bailout package for the economically distressed state, in debt to the tune of Rs 2.5 lakh crore, with the worst debt-to-GDP ratio among larger states.
The latter may entail a climbdown on his opposition to the Electricity (Amendment) Bill, which involves a Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) of subsidy to farmers. This is a tough call, as power subsidy to the farm sector is a politically sensitive issue. On the other hand, the fact that the bulk of it goes to large and medium farmers who are numerically few but politically influential, could be leveraged by the BJP.
Partly because of financial woes and partly due to political constraints, Amarinder Singh has been unable to address the very issues that brought him to power: unemployment (currently at a peak), slowing of GDP and agricultural growth and rampant drug addiction. All these issues will be in play in assembly 2022. He can ill-afford further economic distress. Like the ruling NDA, he has little to gain from the escalation of the farmers’ unrest. Both need a dignified exit.
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