Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Lok Sabha Elections: BJP on the Back Foot, Congress Eyes Jat and Ahir Votes

Bhiwani–Mahendragarh is one of the 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in Haryana. It comprises the following nine Vidhan Sabha segments: Loharu (BJP), Badru (JJP), Dadri (Independent), Bhiwani (BJP), Tosham (Congress), Ateli (BJP), Mahendragarh (Congress), Narnaul (BJP) and Nangal Chaudhry (BJP).

Current MP: Dharambir Singh (BJP)

Top Contenders: Dharambir Singh (BJP), Rao Dan Singh alias Dan Singh Yadav (Congress)

Date of Polling: 25 May 2024 (Phase VI)

Political Dynamics

• Tough Fight in the Offing for BJP: Haryana is no longer a walkover state for the BJP. In Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Lok Sabha constituency, the saffron party faces a big challenge as the Congress’ graph is seen on an upward trajectory. The BJP has fielded sitting MP Dharambir Singh once again. Singh has been the MP for this constituency since 2014. In 2019, he defeated Congress’ Shruti Choudhry and former MP by a margin of over 4.4 lakh votes.
• Much has changed for the BJP in the five years since. The biggest obstacle to the BJP’s fortunes in this seat is the simmering anger of farmers against the BJP and Modi government. Farmers’ ire is believed to be one of the defining features of the election underway in Haryana this time. The use of force against protesting farmers and the general perception among this class of voters that the Centre, instead of alleviating their woes, has exacerbated them is becoming a tough assertion for the BJP to counter.
• Dharambir Singh is a political heavyweight in the region. However, he is often accused of not being very connected to the ground or receptive to people’s issues. The anti-incumbency against him is visible, as the number of BJP supporters and opposers appears to be evenly divided. In certain pockets, support for the Congress outweighs that of the BJP, and vice versa. This is mostly dependent on who one interacts with here, and what assembly segment they belong to. In segments held by the BJP, there is still considerable support for the party, but in seats held by the Congress, the saffron party faces a significant challenge.
• Dharambir Singh is fighting the election in the name of Prime Minister Modi and his guarantees to the nation. In Bhiwani Mahendragarh, there are about 4 lakh Jats, 3.5 lakh Ahirs, 3 lakh Scheduled Castes, 1.6 lakh Brahmins, 1 lakh Rajputs, among other voters. Mainly Ahir, Jat and Scheduled Caste voters will play an important role in the elections. This time, the Ahir vote and a significant portion of the Jat vote is expected to go to the Congress’ kitty. The Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) has also fielded a candidate, but owing to intense anger against the party’s leadership, the fight is mostly between the BJP and Congress.
• Bread and butter issues are bogging down the BJP’s prospect this time around, even as Dharambir Singh regularly faces combative crowds during campaign events, who want answers from the BJP. Price rise, inflation, unemployment, anger against the Agniveer scheme and Modi government’s inability to fix the water-related issues of this constituency are expected to significantly impact its prospects in this election.
• In the Ahir-dominated belt of the constituency, Dharambir Singh is relying almost entirely on the Modi factor and Rao Inderjit’s ability to bring votes towards the BJP. Senior BJP leader and Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh was the main architect behind Dharambir’s victory in the last two polls. Ground inputs suggest that the BJP’s nationalistic or even Hindutva push is not finding many takers this time, as local issues take centre stage.
• However, there are also a significant number of voters who say they have no choice but to vote for PM Modi, despite anger against both the state government and Dharambir Singh. This is besides the number of committed supporters that the BJP still has here. This is what has kept the BJP in the fight in this constituency. The party’s supporters highlight issues like One Rank One Pension, Kisan Samman Nidhi and friendly government policies, apart from Modi’s vision for development and his strengthening of the country’s national security apparatus as reasons why people will and should vote for the BJP.
• PM Modi’s campaign here, in many ways, will be of critical importance for the BJP, as the party looks to consolidate the “floating voters” on its side. At present, both the BJP and Congress stand a good chance of winning Bhiwani-Mahendragarh. Also helping the BJP to an extent is its victory margin of 2019. While the BJP can afford taking considerable losses in terms of votes, the Congress has a steep mountain to climb.
• Congress Going All Out for A Win: The Congress, put simply, is giving the BJP a run for its money in this constituency. The party has fielded Rao Dan Singh to take on Dharambir Singh. Like the BJP candidate is relying on Narendra Modi, Rao Dan Singh has been projecting Rahul Gandhi as the alternative to the Prime Minister, even declaring that the Congress scion would campaign in the constituency to give the Prime Minister a “karara jawaab” (strong reply).
• The Congress is eyeing the Jat and Ahir vote. Jats, since it hopes it can capitalise on the widespread anger among the farmers against the BJP, and Ahirs since Rao Dan Singh is one of them and is already a good position in assembly segments dominated by this group. Taking his case among the Jats is Bhupinder Hooda, another Congress stalwart in Haryana.
• At the same time, the Congress has realised that localising the election as much as possible will improve its chances of victory. It is no coincidence that Rao Dan Singh is attacking the BJP over two lakh government posts lying vacant in Haryana at a time when unemployment is among the biggest issues working against the saffron party. Rao has also claimed that criminals are giving extortion calls to businessmen.
• The Congress faces some troubles of its own. This time, the Congress has not fielded a member of the Bansi Lal family. This is the first time in 28 years that no member of this family is in the field. Bansi Lal’s granddaughter, Shruti Chaudhary won the election for the first time after delimitation in 2009. After that, she lost two consecutive elections. This time too, the politically influential family was asking for a ticket for Shruti Chaudhary, however, the Congress’ decision to field Rao Dan Singh instead has led to considerable friction.
• Bansi Lal family’s supporters are no longer motivated to vote for the Congress. While Kiran Chaudhary, daughter-in-law of Bansi Lal is campaigning a lot for Kumari Selja in Sirsa, she has not yet started actively campaigning for Rao Dan Singh. In a close fight with the BJP, such internal tussles could spoil the Congress’ prospects. Rao Dan Singh’s son and Youth Congress leader Rao Akshat Singh, meanwhile, claims that Kiran Choudhary did not distance herself from the campaign but that there has been a miscommunication and that all leaders were now working to ensure a Congress victory.
• Add to that, the Congress is still not seen by many as an alternative to the BJP. While anger against the BJP is very pronounced, there are ample number of voters who say they will vote for Modi once again simply because they fail to understand the INDIA bloc’s plan to run the country and who their prime ministerial face is. For many, voting for the Congress and seeing Rahul Gandhi become Prime Minister remains a non-starter.

Key Issues

• Water Shortage: Bhiwani has an acute water shortage issue which crops up every summer. Residents of Sainipura, Sugalan Dhani, and Hanuman Dhani in Bhiwani’s Ward No. 25 faces a severe shortage of potable water for a month every summer. The Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) has not been able to provide regular water supply to these areas, forcing residents to rely on groundwater for drinking, despite it not being fit for consumption.
• Water Contamination: The groundwater in Sainipura, Sugalan Dhani, and Hanuman Dhani in Bhiwani’s Ward No. 25 is not safe for drinking, posing a risk of spreading cholera and skin allergies. Residents are forced to use hand pumps, but the water is salty and contaminated. While they use this water for washing clothes and utensils, bathing with it has resulted in skin allergies, particularly among children and the elderly.
• Farmer Issues: Farmer issues in Bhiwani and the rest of Haryana are a national issue. The farmer’s agitation in these parts have been going on for about more than a year against the now-repealed farm laws and a demand for higher MSP. Use of force against farmers has been etched in their memory. But these are not the only issues farmer’s face in Bhiwani.
• Irrigation has been one of the biggest issues in the region for a long time. Lack of water supply in the region has impacted farmers irrigating their lands. Another issue which the farmers face is crop failure and losses due to its which forces farmers into debt.
• Compensation for crop loss is often delayed and this leads to farmer’ debt compounding. In 2022 there were reports that over 900 farmers have been struggling to get compensation under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Beema Yojana.
• Moreover, in some regions such as Mandwa there are no banks, farmers thus have to rely on local moneylenders at exorbitant interest rates.
• Agniveer: The Agnipath/Agniveer scheme, which limits 75% of recruits to a four-year service, has sparked resentment among youth in the Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Lok Sabha constituency. Unemployment is a significant issue in the area, and joining the armed forces was a common career path for many. The scheme’s implementation has dashed the hopes of many young people.
• Unemployment: There are no major industries in the Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Lok sabha constituency. Youth in the region had always believed that the armed forces were the only source of employment but since the Agniveer program they have been forced to believe especially by the opposition that their only source of employment has been taken away from them. Farming is the only sector that can accommodate the rising population’s employment issues but due to the number of issues which the farmer’s face the people are disenchanted.

Demographics

• Total Voters: 1682198
• SC: 312,889 (18.6%)
• Urban Voters: 316,253 (18.8%)
• Rural Voters: 1,365,945 (81.2%)
• Hindu: 98.7%
• Muslim: 0.8%

Infrastructure Development

• Amrit Bharat: Bhiwani railway station has been selected as part of the Centre’s Amrit Bharat station scheme. It will provide the much-needed infrastructural makeover to the railway station. The railway station in Loharu of Bhiwani district will be redeveloped at a total cost of Rs 18.58 crore.
• Railway Infrastructure: The Bhiwani Lok Sabha constituency has seen significant rail infra development, including electrification of the Delhi Sarai Rohilla-Rewari-Ahmedabad (incl. Kalol-Gandhinagar-Khodiyar-Nwar-Bandiku)-Jaipur-Phulera section, which cost 1121.210 Cr. Other developments include passenger amenities like platform improvement at Satmali station and traffic facilities like road over bridges and under bridges on Rewari-Ringas-Phulera chord section. An escalator at Platform No. 1 of Bhiwani station is also under construction.
• Bhiwani Medical College: The new Bhiwani Medical college is under construction, according should be functional from the coming session.Other Infrastructure: Robust road and rail network, freight corridors and logistic hubs have been launched. Apart from strengthening the national highways, numerous connecting roads and internal village roads have been constructed.
• Bhiwani-Hansi (NH-148B): 4-Laning of Bhiwani-Hansi road section of NH-148B under Bharatmala Pariyojana in Bhiwani and Hisar districts were approved in 2022 at a cost of Rs 1322.13 crore. It is still under construction.
• ODR Roads: The state government has ordered the construction and upgradation of 13 ODR roads in Bhiwani at a cost of 9.39 crore. The roads will serve rural areas of production and providing them with outlet to market centres, tehsil headquarters, block development headquarters, railway stations etc.

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