Independent candidate Haji Haneefa Jan pulled a stunning upset in the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat this week by securing 65,259 votes, defeating INDIA bloc nominee Tsering Namgyal and BJP candidate Tashi Gyalson. Haneefa Jan’s winning margin was 27,862 votes. The BJP had won the seat in 2014 and 2019, but finished third in the 2024 tally.
A range of factors resulted in the defeat of the BJP and INDIA bloc in the seat that witnessed its first election after Ladakh was made a Union Territory following the revocation of Article 370 and bifurcation of J&K.
The entire Kargil unit of the National Conference resigned en masse after party president Farooq Abdullah asked them to vote and support INDIA bloc candidate Tsering Namgyal. The Kargil unit wrote a letter to Abdullah, submitting their resignation and announcing support for Haneefa Jan who was the Kargil unit president of the party.
Haneefa Jan told the media in Kargil that he would fulfill the promises he had made during campaigning and would work hard for the issues of Ladakh in and outside Parliament. “This is the victory of the people of Ladakh, the victory of Kargil, Ladakh Democratic Alliance and our unity. We were sure of our success, but we wanted to show the power of unity and prove it,” Haneefa Jan said.
The new Ladakh MP hasn’t yet decided whether he would support the NDA or the INDIA bloc and a meeting would be held soon to arrive at a decision. In all likelihood, Haneefa Jan will steer clear of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. A committee that has people from different walk of the society in Ladakh will decide the next move.
Why the BJP Lost Ladakh
Anger had been brewing against the BJP for some time for not fulfilling its poll promise, which included implementing the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution and giving Ladakh statehood. In the run-up to the election, Ladakh witnessed a massive peaceful protest to press for these demands, while multiple meetings with the Union Home Ministry failed to convince the two bodies — the Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA) and Leh Apex Body (LAB). The BJP-led central government had assured Ladakh that the region would be brought under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution because 97% of the population in Ladakh is indigenous tribal.
Sonam Wangchuk, an innovator, engineer, and education reformist whose life inspired Aamir Khan’s character ‘Phunsukh Wangdu’ in 3 Idiots, went on a fast-unto-death in Ladakh with hundreds of people joining him in Leh earlier this year. He had said that there was anger among the people against not giving statehood to Ladakh.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2020 Local Hill Council elections, the BJP promised a Sixth Schedule for the Union Territory. The BJP had won the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat in 2014 and 2019, fielding Thupstan Chhewang and Jamyang Tsering Namgyal, respectively. During a meeting with the KDA and LAB, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had reportedly said that Jamyang would be replaced as the candidate this time. The BJP decided to take field Tashi Gyalson, chief executive councilor-cum-chairman of the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council, instead.
“There was an anti-incumbency factor too apart from the anger over the BJP not living up to its poll promise of protecting Ladakh under the Sixth Schedule and giving it statehood,” said Issaq, a local reporter from Kargil.
The decision to go ahead with Tashi had angered Namgyal, who attempted to revolt against the BJP for denying him the ticket. He obtained a set of nomination papers and wanted to fight as an Independent, but the BJP managed to convince him not to contest.
How an Independent Candidate Won Ladakh
In previous elections, Ladakh would witness multiple candidates fight a tough contest. The tussle between Leh and Kargil was an election staple too. But this time, when the entire Kargil unit of the National Conference resigned and others stepped back from the nomination, the herd thinned out.
Kargil put up a show of unity, voting for a single candidate. Political activist Sajad Kargilli, who is also part of the KDA, filed his nomination for the seat but ended up withdrawing it amid a call for unity. The move helped keep the Kargil vote intact, with the BJP having a low footprint in the Muslim-majority district.
Official data shows that there were a total of 1,84,803 voters in Ladakh, with Leh district having 88,877 voters and Kargil having 95,926 – a difference of 7,049 voters in the latter’s favour. While Kargil is Muslim-dominated, Leh is Buddhist-dominated. Religious affiliations played a role in the elections, with the Buddhist vote in Leh split between Tashi and Tsering. The Muslim vote in Kargil, however, was consolidated.
Ladakh recorded 71.82% voting. The turnout in Kargil was 76.15%, while Leh recorded 67.14%.
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